I. SeaFreight: Challenges & Opportunities from Vietnam and SEA

The global economic landscape in Q2/2025 continues to be influenced by policy uncertainties and weakened consumer purchasing power. Ocean freight routes from Vietnam and Southeast Asia to major markets such as the United States, Europe, and Australia-New Zealand are experiencing mixed trends, creating both challenges and opportunities for businesses to optimize logistics costs and strategies:

1. U.S. Routes – High Volatility, Favorable Rates

• Stable yet slightly oversupplied capacity: Major carriers like Maersk, HPL, and ONE are maintaining "blank sailing" strategies to balance supply and demand. However, due to delayed bookings caused by concerns over new U.S. tariff policies, there is currently a slight surplus in slot availability.

• Freight rates plunging: According to ShipUniverse, freight rates from Vietnam to the U.S. in Q1/2025 dropped by an average of 28%, marking the sharpest decline in two decades. Although the U.S. has temporarily delayed imposing additional tariffs for 90 days (except for China), cautious sentiment continues to influence booking decisions.

Other factors, such as prolonged inflation, fuel price volatility, and weakened consumer demand, further impact shipping demand. Meanwhile, the relocation of supply chains to Vietnam requires time to establish infrastructure and new production processes.

This is an ideal period to negotiate long-term contracts with competitive freight rates, securing shipping capacity ahead of the Q3–Q4/2025 peak season

• Stable supply of slots and containers: Leading carriers like ONE, OOCL, MSC, and Maersk are maintaining consistent slot and container availability. Container inventory at major Vietnamese ports such as Cat Lai, Cai Mep, and Hai Phong remains largely stable.

• Freight rates staying low: Current rates are 10–15% lower than the same period in 2024 and are expected to remain stable through April and May. However, the risk of congestion at major ports like Rotterdam and Hamburg is increasing due to summer staffing shortages (typically from June to August).

• The EU's economic recovery remains sluggish, with weak consumer demand. China continues to exert indirect influence on European routes by adjusting operational plans or feeder schedules. Certain transshipment routes via Singapore and Port Klang may face container shortages or delays without early planning.

The European route is well-suited for shipments with regular, stable schedules. Businesses should prioritize this route to mitigate risks from the U.S. market and preserve long-term supply chain stability.

3. Australia-New Zealand Routes (AU-NZ) – Opportunities During The Low Season

• Ample supply – Competitive rates: Slot and container availability are abundant at major ports, making booking easier with minimal delays.

• Reduced shipping costs – Favorable negotiation opportunities: Carriers such as Maersk and HPL are offering rates lower than operational costs to attract cargo. Rates are expected to rise slightly starting in June to prepare for the peak season.

• Competitive pricing strategies: During the low season, carriers are ramping up promotions and special pricing policies.

This is the perfect time to negotiate long-term contracts with low freight rates, optimizing logistics costs for shipments in Q3–Q4/2025
 

II. Air Freight: Impact of New U.S. Tariff Policies

Following President Trump's announcement of new import tariffs effective April 9, 2025, the global air freight market has seen significant changes, particularly in Southeast Asia:

• Noticeable drop in demand: With consumer sentiment slowing in the U.S., many airlines have reduced flight frequencies or switched to smaller bellyhold aircraft to optimize costs.

• Slight decline in freight rates: Routes affected by tariff policies—especially to North America—are adjusting rates downward, albeit with limited margins. Airlines are closely monitoring market trends to respond quickly to actual demand.

• Supply chain instability risk: Tariff implementation could trigger retaliatory measures from affected nations, creating ripple effects across global logistics chains.

• Stable freighter operations: Amid bellyhold reductions, freighter aircraft operations remain robust thanks to their flexibility in network coverage and frequency, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.

Forecast: The air freight market will continue to experience significant volatility in Q2/2025. Businesses should secure bookings early and closely monitor developments to proactively adjust transportation plans, particularly for seasonal goods, technology products, or perishable items.

In the face of unpredictable market fluctuations, Vantage Logistics Corp. is committed to being a "Leading Logistics Provider" by offering flexible and sustainable solutions alongside our partners:

• Logistics consulting: Optimizing shipment planning, consolidation, and route selection to ensure on-time delivery, compliance, and cost efficiency.

• Securing volume & long-term contracts: Actively negotiating with carriers to secure competitive rates and stable slots during peak seasons.

• Weekly market updates: Real-time data on slot availability and freight rates from carriers to enable rapid responses to market dynamics.

• Strong SEA network: Extensive connections across logistics hubs in the region – from Vietnam to Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and beyond – ensuring stable capacity from origin to global destinations.

Vantage Logistics is ready to support our partners in navigating challenges and seizing opportunities in the global market during Q2/2025. Contact the Vantage team for detailed updates tailored to individual routes and specific needs.